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Although cloud seeding is not new, this is the reason it is currently in the news.
What if we told you that for decades, people have been attempting to control the weather? This is not merely a conspiracy theory, nor is it science fiction. As people wonder about its involvement in the increasingly strange weather patterns of today, cloud seeding—a real technology with a lengthy and colorful history—is making headlines once more.
Let’s start by defining cloud seeding. The technique of cloud seeding is used to increase or decrease precipitation and other weather phenomena. It is crucial to realize that this process is a result of human interference with the weather, for better or worse. Furthermore, drones or airplanes can be used to carry out this intervention; nevertheless, this is but one technique of cloud seeding that has been created throughout the process’s history.
The long-term impacts and unpredictable nature of weather manipulation raise a number of concerns and uncertainties, in addition to the historical misuses of this technology.
According to science, cloud seeding is the process of adding substances or particles to a storm system in order to cause precipitation. In addition to sodium chloride (NaCl), calcium chloride (CaCl2), potassium iodide (KI), dry ice (solid CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), bismuth tri-iodide (BiI3), and propane (C3H8), silver iodide (AgI) is the most often utilized compound, according to Earth.org. Moisture can “latch onto” these synthetic compounds because the released particles mimic the development of ice crystals in the clouds, regardless of the composition. Rain subsequently falls from the clouds as a result of the weight of these “nuclei.”
The favored chemical is silver iodide since it resembles natural ice crystals in structure. Moreover, trillions of artificial ice crystals can be created with just one gram of silver iodide. Due to its structural resemblance to ice crystals and its high cost-effectiveness, this chemical is naturally a favorite.
hazy beginnings
The official discovery of cloud seeding methods is credited to Vincent Schaefer and Bernard Vonnegut (yes, the older brother of Kurt Vonnegut). They separately discovered two different methods around the same time: one using dry ice to alter the heat of the cloud system and the other involving the chemical manipulation of the clouds to simulate the formation of ice crystals. However, cloud seeding ultimately aims to control the ice crystals in the clouds and is achieved in both methods. These techniques were discovered and developed by General Electric in 1946. Both techniques are still in use today, typically employing silver iodide and dry ice, respectively.
Despite the fact that cloud seeding is a technology that has been in use for decades, many of its alleged mainstream applications are banal. According to Earth.org, cloud seeding is used by governments to supplement the water supply in drought-stricken areas, suppress extreme heat, control wildfires, and improve agricultural productivity. On the other hand, ski resorts, insurance companies, and airports sometimes employ this technology to increase snowfall, mitigate hailstorms, or disperse fog, respectively.
Interestingly, not all applications of cloud seeding technology have been so benign. For example, the United States military used cloud seeding technology in the Vietnam War from 1967 to 1972 in a project known as Operation Popeye. According to a New York Times article published in 1972, this project sought to extend the monsoon season in North Vietnam to affect military operations during the war, especially along the Ho Chi Minh Trail. It was hoped that the increased rainfall during monsoon season would cause landslides and destroy roads, disrupting North Vietnam’s military supply chains and troop/arms movements.
What’s more, the report indicated that “many usually well‐informed members of the Nixon Administration had been kept in the dark.” According to a “well-placed government official,” this operation was kept under wraps even within the government itself: “This kind of thing was a bomb, and Henry [Kissinger] restricted information about it to those who had to know.” The article suggests that Henry Kissinger played a direct role in this project and its concealment within the government.
According to Earth.org, cloud seeding for military use was suspended in a 1977 international treaty, yet this historical example demonstrates this technology’s wide range of applications.
Making it rain
New innovations have seemingly streamlined the cloud seeding process in some experiments. For example, it was reported that the “United Arab Emirates began to experiment with the use of aerial drones for cloud seeding.” As the article explains, “The new twist on the old concept uses drones to cast an electric charge. This ‘zaps’ clouds with a laser beam, which causes water droplets to combine and leads to rainfall.” While the science behind this particular experiment is not as clear, this does show that the technology is improving and that many countries are attempting to refine this process. More broadly, we can conclude that this technology has existed for a long time, is explainable, and is certainly not “magic.” In true “Jurassic Park” fashion, however, there is, of course, an ethical debate that should supersede the scientific inquiry.
Cloud seeding can produce many positive effects. It can bring more water to arid lands, like the Western United States or some parts of China. It can also shape weather events for less utilitarian purposes. For example, China used this technology during the 2016 Beijing Olympics and claims that it “cleared the skies for the Beijing Olympics by forcing the rain to come early.” It can ostensibly stop or shrink the size of hail. It can also potentially mitigate harmful weather events such as hurricanes or monsoons.
However, cloud seeding could have some negative consequences. First, weather is evidently unpredictable, so even if we can influence the weather, we cannot fully control it. According to a government official familiar with Operation Popeye at the time, there was a large margin of error in the experimental phase of the project: “We used to go out flying around and looking for a certain cloud formation,” the official said. “And we made a lot of mistakes. Once we dumped seven inches of rain in two hours on one of our Special Forces camps.”
Second, silver iodide, the popular compound used in the cloud seeding process, is mildly toxic to humans over long periods of time: “Ingestion of silver iodide can lead to nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Prolonged exposure to silver iodide can cause argyria, a condition where silver deposits in the tissues, causing them to turn blue or gray.” Most sources claim that the concentration of silver iodide in water produced through this process is negligible. Taking these sources in good faith, it should nonetheless be noted that our evidence is likely to reflect small areas of land over a shorter period than would be preferable. That is to say, we do not know the long-term effects of silver iodide in the water for a larger population, like the United States.
It is astounding that this technology exists and seems to be somewhat effective. It is a true feat of human ingenuity. This technology has many potential benefits, and it is hoped that entities equipped with these capabilities will use them well. We should also be more informed about developments of this technology in the future. Several questions and uncertainties surround the long-term effects and unpredictability of weather manipulation, not to mention the historical abuses for which this technology has already been used. These questions should be answered before this tech is expedited or expanded to a larger scale of operation. Let’s hope that, as more people learn about this reality, there is a stronger push for an ethical debate to develop alongside this incredible feat of science. If scientists must “play God,” as some critics say, we should at least proceed very cautiously.
